Who Really Won the High Definition DVD War?

With the dust settling on the next generation disc format wall settling, not all of us are thrilled with the Blu-ray outcome. While Bill bought an HD DVD player, I also thought that HD DVD was to be "the standard." Our very own Bear emerges from his den after a winter worth of hibernation to weigh in on the issue. With the studios bailing on making new HD DVD discs, I think the reality is that Blu-Ray is here to stay. However, like VHS defeating Betamax, let's not pretend that it was the superior format. Also, at current prices, the Blu-Ray gear is also more expensive.

Jonas
Well, they say the war is over, and Blu-Ray is the winner! I will be honest, I really thought for several reasons, HD-DVD would be the clear winner in the end. Maybe they will be……

My reasons for selecting HD-DVD format were clear. The players were cost much less. Where Blu-Ray was $499 and up, HD-DVD was $299! When I looked at the movie selections, I really like the selection HD-DVD had compared to the titles Blu-Ray was offering. The Toshiba HD-A2 had an Ethernet port so you could update the player’s firmware and get additional content regarding the movie off the internet. The Combo-Disc, a disc that had both the HD version AND the standard definition versions of the movie on the other side made a lot of sense. HD-DVD players played standard DVD’s.

Well, it seems Sony was not about to lose this war like they did to VHS with there Betamax video cassette player. In that war I selected Betamax! Again it made sense. It actually had a higher quality picture and was in a smaller housing. Wrong, VHS wins and I sit there scratching my head and asking why? Did Sony make deals with studios? Does it really matter?

The quality of a High Definition DVD played on a 32” TV is hard to see at a distance of 6 feet or further. Consumers with larger monitors will indeed see an increase in quality. Many consumers may actually decide that the quality of a standard definition DVD is acceptable when weighing the additional cost of Blu-ray discs and a new player!

The competition between HD-DVD and Blu-Ray was actually good for the consumer. It encouraged price discounts and pushed the advancement of the technology. The days of the CD are numbered, what to think that the same might be true of the DVD and Blu-Ray formats? In a few short years, the standard for all audio and video content we watch may very well be sent to our home via the internet and with advancements in compression the storage media may be a chip. Do you know where you music is tonight?

One things for sure, things won’t stay as they are…..

Bear

Nine Technology Predictions For 2008

Another year gone by as we head into 2008. I was originally going to post about how I did on last year's tech predictions, but you can read them here, and I think you'll agree that I did better than most (and if you don't, this is my little corner of cyberspace so whatever). I did want to share what I was foreseeing for the upcoming year.

As I look to 2008, I see a year more of evolution, than of revolution. I also see more transition to than anything else. In that, I mean that there will be more of the same, mostly with more features packed into the same forms. I also see the groundwork being laid for some real innovation, but that won't be till 2009 and beyond. Let's get more specific:

1- Quad Core Chips

With the introduction of AMD's Phenom, and Intel's Q6600 both at under $300, this could be the year that Quad cores slip under the $200 mark. While I'm not expecting a $55 Celeron Quad too soon, 2008 should be the year that the quad becomes a more common chip among the enthusiast crowd as they seek more performance beyond dual cores. Also, single core chips will fade into the annals of technology except at the very lowest end.

2- Windows Vista

History will remind us that XP wasn't exactly bulletproof when it came out. It's only with the service packs that it became considerably more stable. I think the same will happen with Vista, and all indicators point to Vista SP1 being ready early in the year. Hopefully, this will be the needed fix.

3- Wireless

I'm actually not that optimistic that 2008 will see N networking being introduced. Even if they come out with the final specification, it will be a while before we can buy the actual products, so we're still stuck with the montage of "draft N" stuff, or just stick with the older gear.

Also in wireless, WiMax will continue to be talked about, but not really used. The auction of the TV spectrum will also be big news, but don't expect the products anytime soon as this slice of the electromagnetic spectrum isn't being vacated till Feb '09 at the earliest when analog TV goes off the airwaves.

4- Media Players

Apple, now spurred by the competition of the Zune, will get more innovative than last year's breed (ok, the iTouch was innovative, but not that practical, at least to me). I think the iPhone 2 will be even more potent. The iTouch 2 will be bumped up to a "get real" 32 gigs of flash storage. The iPod Classic will get a bigger screen, which is what the folks really wanted this year.

The Zune will increase the hard drive size, but I think the real focus will be on improving the flash line which has not really stood out from the competition in this round.

5- TV's

LCD will continue to outsell plasma by a healthy margin. Next gen technologies, like OLED or laser TV are still several years away. Some folks will continue to prepare for the end of analog TV in 2009, and the digital transition. I still need to get that new antenna...

6- Handhelds

Palm will continue to flounder. The smartphone (unfortunately) replaced the stand alone handheld. I expect to see some impressive new smartphones to compete with the iPhone. Now only if T-Mobile could (a) get me better coverage, and (b) make the data plan not cost an arm & a leg, I'd be a happy camper, but I'm not holding my breath for either to happen.

7- Ports

USB will soldier on. HDMI gains momentum both for TV's, and for computer displays. eSATA will also gain popularity. FireWire gets relegated to niche status.

8- Disc Format Wars

Blu-Ray and HD-DVD will continue to duke it out, but I don't think there will be a clear winner. We'll probably see more products that support both formats, but I don't think they will reach affordability until 2009 or beyond.

9- Printers

With B&W laser printers priced in the disposable price point, and color lasers skirting below $200, I see them eating into the inkjet market as savvy consumers realize that printer ink is so seriously overpriced. If the color lasers can get down to $150 consistently, they'll take off in the home market, which I hope to see for the back to school sales.

Ok, there you have it. Like I said, more of a year of evolution laying the groundwork for better things to come in the years ahead. You can count on all of us at TechNudge to guide you through all of this.

Jonas

NudgeCast 12/05/07

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Special thanks to Incompetech for the theme music.
Feel free to weigh in on the theme music as this is the first time I've tried it...

On Amazon's Kindle

There have always been a few "Holy Grails" in consumer technology that seem around the corner, but never actually materialize. Things like 10 GHz processors, speech recognition that actually works, and, yes, you probably guessed, eBooks. The allure of a tablet that can hold a library is a strong one.

While there have been a few attempts through the years, none have ever really taken flight. The most useful surrogate is having a book as a PDF on a notebook computer, but this was hardly what anyone really envisioned when they thought about the eBook.

I was pleasantly surprised to hear that Amazon was releasing one, called the Kindle, and equally surprised to hear that technology pundit, Jeremy of Live Digitally, thought it was a lousy idea. After delving into this further, I think it's a great idea, and it's even better that it's from the online bookseller powerhouse. Apparently, at least a few folks bought one, and it sold out pretty quickly.

Going through the Kindle device, I can see that a lot of thought went into it. The use of eInk, to provide a crisp display that also has a long battery life is a key technology. I also like that it can download new content from the cellular EVDO network (they're dubbing it "Whispernet," but it's the Sprint network without the monthly fees), and not rely on hit-or-miss WiFi coverage (not all of us live at Starbucks).

Cost is the main issue in my mind at this juncture. While the $399 price tag is too high of an admission price, it apparently hasn't been for others as the unit has already sold out of the first run. The books can be downloaded for $9.99 which is a savings off of the $20-plus hard cover price that most of them go for, and no much above a soft cover price. Reportedly, you can download the first chapter for free to decide if the rest is worth the cost. There is also an option to read newspapers (the Wall Street Journal for $9.99/month sounds like a good deal), magazines (Time for $1.99 is ok), or even a blog (TechCrunch for 99 cents anyone?). For the frugal, you can also search the Wikipedia for free right from the device.

Overall, I'm pretty impressed with the offerings, although I think the real market could be with textbooks. For the college student, especially the way that books go out of date every other semester in some subjects, if they could download their books to this device at a discount, the four Franklin acquisition fee would be worth it over four years- not to mention to lighten the backpack considerably.

For me, there's around a dozen or so textbooks I use professionally at this point, and they take up an entire bookshelf. I would love to see a subscription model on the Kindle that I could get those books on this device, fully searchable, and always up to date when a new edition comes out. I'm not sure what that would be worth to me, but it would be a heck of a lot easier to move between work and home, not to mention anywhere else I might want to use it. In fact, the Kindle would be well suited to a variety of professional editions: Kindle Law, Kindle Pharmacy, Kindle Talmud could all be possibilities.

In summary, Amazon's Kindle is the first eBook that looks like it's gonna be a hit. While it may take a generation or two before it takes off into the land of mass adoption, with the marketing power of Amazon and crew behind it, I think that the Kindle is here to stay.

--Jonas

More info here.